Donald Trump’s Second Presidency: Europe and The Future of North Atlantic Relations – By Toba Alabi
The inauguration of Donald Trump for a second term in January 2025 has ushered in a new era of uncertainty for transatlantic relations. As a leader known for his skepticism toward multilateral alliances, Trump’s return to power has reignited concerns across Europe about the future of NATO, economic ties, and geopolitical stability. His administration’s policies, marked by protectionism, demands for increased European defense spending, and a transactional approach to diplomacy, are forcing European leaders to rethink their strategic priorities.
The visit of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Washington today underscores the urgency of Europe’s diplomatic efforts to engage with the Trump administration. With tensions high over issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO funding, and trade disputes, Europe is at a crossroads—either deepening its strategic autonomy or finding new ways to navigate a shifting alliance with the United States. This article examines the key implications of Trump’s second presidency for Europe, focusing on security, defense, economic relations, and the broader future of the North Atlantic alliance.
Reconfiguration of Transatlantic Relations
President Trump’s “America First” policy has led to a noticeable distancing of the United States from traditional European allies. This shift is evident in the administration’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the U.S. has engaged in direct negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukrainian and European representatives. Such actions have raised concerns among European leaders about being sidelined in critical security matters affecting the continent.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington today highlights Europe’s apprehension regarding the U.S.’s evolving foreign policy. Starmer is expected to discuss NATO commitments, Ukraine, and trade relations, seeking assurances that the U.S. remains a reliable partner. His visit reflects broader European concerns about how Trump’s policies might reshape the continent’s strategic outlook.
Implications for NATO and Collective Defence
The Trump administration’s stance on NATO has introduced uncertainty about the future of collective defense commitments. President Trump has questioned the automatic defense of NATO allies, particularly those not meeting the alliance’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP. This position has led to debates within NATO about the reliability of U.S. support in the event of external aggression. The ambiguity surrounding the U.S. commitment has prompted European nations to consider bolstering their own defense capabilities and exploring alternative security arrangements.
European Strategic Autonomy and Defense Initiatives
In response to the perceived erosion of U.S. support, European countries are accelerating efforts toward strategic autonomy. This includes increasing defense budgets, enhancing military cooperation among EU member states, and investing in indigenous defense technologies. The European Union is exploring the establishment of a unified defense force capable of responding to regional threats without reliance on U.S. military support. These initiatives reflect a strategic pivot aimed at reducing dependency on transatlantic ties and ensuring Europe’s security sovereignty.
The second Trump administration has introduced protectionist trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs on European goods. These measures have strained economic relations between the U.S. and Europe, leading to retaliatory tariffs and a reevaluation of trade agreements. The economic friction is compelling European nations to diversify their trade partnerships, seeking closer economic ties with other global markets to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and European Security
The U.S.’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict under President Trump has significant ramifications for European security. The administration’s willingness to negotiate directly with Russia, potentially at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty, has unsettled Eastern European countries wary of Russian expansionism. This situation has led to increased military support for Ukraine from European nations and a reevaluation of defense postures in countries bordering Russia. The potential for a U.S.-Russia rapprochement raises questions about the future security architecture of Europe and the effectiveness of existing alliances.
President Trump’s second term has catalyzed a transformation in transatlantic relations, compelling Europe to reassess its strategic dependencies and defense strategies. The combination of uncertain U.S. commitments to NATO, protectionist economic policies, and a unilateral approach to security issues has prompted European nations to pursue greater strategic autonomy. This period of adjustment signifies a pivotal moment for the North Atlantic alliance, with long-term implications for the geopolitical landscape of Europe and its relations with the United States.
Toba Alabi is Professor of Political Science and Defence Studies.
